Scenario Planning and the process of innovation

Sometimes there comes that nagging feeling that one just has to churn out some content, but I have been resisting the temptation.  In the mean time I have been trying to work out what exactly I wanted to say.

The questions that I have been working out how to phrase are these:

• How can one take the various processes that are used to drive innovation as a practice and apply the same principles to scenario planning and analysis? 
• Which processes are best and which elements make sense to look at?  
• Models and methodologies abound, as do different schools of thought. The real question is where is a good place to start?

In trying to frame the potential answers, there have to be some guidelines:

• The process has to be simple and easy to communicate.
• It has to deliver a set of manageable set of outcomes/options/potential contexts to consider or examine further.
• There should be a defined means of linking it into a scenario planning model or framework.

The reason for the interest is a simple conundrum which should be obvious to most product management practitioners .... large organisations are naturally conservative and tend to reinforce incremental innovation over potentially disruptive innovation that is untested and by its nature highly risky when compared to small incremental innovations.
How then can scenario planning be used to provide further context and data to reduce the perceived risk of potentially more disruptive innovation opportunities?

If there are any product management, innovation or strategy practitioners out there that have a potential view - please feel free to comment/make contact, I am really interested in your thoughts/insights.  I will certainly share my conclusions here at a later date.