Product Strategy and Portfolio Development need Scenario Planning

I have been thinking about innovation, and how to identify, and then prioritise potential product portfolio development options.  Quite often, the choice of what needs to be done in order to rejuvenate a product portfolio or evolve it into the next generation of offerings is driven by individual personalities, or a limited leadership group, or just simply "group think"  that is driven by financial decision making metrics, or the latest "pet" idea.  How then can the business ensure that all angles have been covered before a decision is made?



A question that has been prickling at the back of my mind for some time is:

• Where does scenario planning fit, and does it / should it form part of product portfolio plannning?  

This can then again be expanded into a further extended set of questions along similar lines:

• What are the stages of scenario planning that may apply specifically to product portfolio development or put another way - how does it fit in with the process of innovation?  
• Which then in turn leads to the question of why and when to do scenario planning?  
• Is it an activity that is limited to the boardroom,  to drive a set of theoretical "what if" thinking? or
• Does it have an application in trying to predict/identify potential market outcomes or trends, which in turn can inform potential new areas that could be focused on and developed?

Consider the following diagram:

Given the number of potential inputs/considerations that need to be evaluated (I have highlighted only a couple), it would makes sense that scenario planning (as a process) could form an integral part of a product portfolio evolution decision process. As further justification,  it could also be argued that as the impact of the shift of power from the supplier to the consumer accelerates (as a result of social networks and other new technology advances), and as the resulting effects are realised in the downstream B2B ecosystem, scenario planning will become even more important.

One only has to look at the rise of the iPad and the resulting pressure on the enterprise IT departments to allow tablets in the workplace, and the advent of BYOD (bring your own device), to see a real world example of why paying close attention to the B2C space is important for strategy formulation in the B2B space. Scenario analysis would facilitate this type of focus.

The pace of change of today's world is increasing, both from a speed and a complexity perspective.  Old school, simple, 2 dimensional models are no longer are sufficient to ensure that all bases have been covered in the decision making cycle.  The world has now moved to a 3D model with the consumer and social networks adding the 3rd dimension of complexity in the B2B space.  The challenge that faces business executives and product management,  is how to make decisions at the right time, far enough in advance, to ensure that there is a higher probability that they will land a capability and value proposition just as the consumer demand translates into a defined business need.

In the new world of building business "as a service" product portfolio's.  I wonder whether it is time to dust off scenario analysis, and bring it out of the boardroom and into the cold light of day to be used as regular product management/strategy decision making tool?